When the world’s largest companies predict the future, it seems good sense to listen, if only because those companies have the means to make that future happen. Eric Russell listens to what they are saying.

By 2050, the earth will carry some 9.3 billion people – around 50 per cent more than today – many of whom will be living in megacities. By 2015, India’s Mumbai, for example, will be home to 22.6 million people – a larger population than present-day Romania, while Karachi, in southern Pakistan, will have 16.2 million inhabitants – more people than now live in the Netherlands.

Not only is world population booming; the age pyramid is also shifting as a result of demographic change. For the first time in human history, there will soon be as many people in the world over 60 years of age as under 15. At present, the age group showing the fastest growth is that of the over-80s. By 2050, this group is expected to comprise 4.1 per cent of the world's total population, compared to only 1.2 per cent today.

These developments underscore the magnitude of the tasks that now confront humankind: to conserve scarce resources; to maintain a clean environment; to provide adequate water supplies and wastewater disposal; to transport people and goods efficiently and safely; to generate and distribute power in an environmentally compatible way; and to provide affordable healthcare that improves the quality of life. These are also the challenges for which Siemens is developing innovative solutions.

At the recent media summit organised in Berlin by Siemens, the company says it is a leading provider that develops innovative solutions for the megatrends of the future, so it must be seen to fulfil its prophecies if only to maintain its credibility. And, as it says these megatrends open up opportunities for profitable growth, it has to make its vision work to keep up the profitability of the organisation.

The media summit gave it the chance to provide some impressions of how the company’s portfolio will address these megatrends. So its key questions for power generation centred on how to cover the rising global demand for energy and how to supply energy in a way that is compatible with the climate and environment, reliable and also affordable.

It says the world has to face the challenges of accelerating urbanisation, demographic change, sinking energy reserves, increasing pollution and climate change. Energy efficiency will play a key role in meeting these challenges but innovative technologies are the key to mastering the future.

Research programme

Klaus Kleinfeld, Siemens CEO, said at the summit: “In the past year, our researchers and developers around the globe have been working to make the world a better place to live and spent 5.2 billion on research and development. That’s more than the research budget of the entire European Union. Our goal is to grow twice as fast as the global economy and achieve sustainable profitability for securing the innovation leadership of our groups. We will grow organically and continue to strengthen our position through acquisitions.”

In other words, as others develop new technologies, Siemens will observe them until their venture appears to be sustainable, and then buy it. When it cannot follow this route, it will seek other solutions such as partnerships in order to maintain its share of that market.

Its R&D budget is 6.8 per cent of its 75 billion sales total and was spent by some 47 000 employees in its research and development facilities, including over 30 000 software developers. In the past fiscal year they submitted 8800 invention reports.

The Intellectual Property Owners Association, the American patent authority, ranked Siemens ninth in its list of leading US patent holders in 2005. Last year, the company was granted 1,345 patents there in key infrastructure areas such as power, water, healthcare, transportation and automation. The company currently holds over 53 000 patents. It is continuing intensively to expand its water business and is the world's No.1 supplier of e-health solutions.

In power generation, Siemens is working against a background of figures from the German Ministry of Economics and Technology that say known oil reserves will last another 43 years. When reserves that have not yet been developed are also taken into account, the world has enough oil for 67 more years.

But prices will rise as time passes, as market forces reflect these dwindling supplies, so economic viability will drive the change to other fuels. Siemens sees zero-emission coal-fired power plants as one answer, supported by growth of HVDC and better network management.

The company sees a good future for fossil power generation and says Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) technology has the potential to be the most innovative and economical CO2-free coal power plant solution. In the long term, IGCC efficiency will rise from today’s 47 per cent to 53 per cent, bringing investment costs down from 1400/kW to 1100/kW. There is also a strong future for coal gasification which will be able to handle a wide range of fuels including hard and brown coals, biomass and liquid waste, which meets future requirements for fuel flexibility.

Control developments

Siemens also sees greater use of web-based control systems to better meet future customer demands. There will be greater integration of instrumentation and control so that all functions will be embedded in a common frame rather than use of subsystems. There will be unified access to central data storage for process data, engineering information and project records. This means that all tasks will be performed from any workstation through web-based functionality.

Nanotechnology research will produce new materials and coatings that are easy-to-clean and provide better insulation for turbine blades. Use of second generation ceramics, with their greater ability to withstand very high temperatures, will increase turbine efficiencies.

Gas turbine technology will further evolve with blade developments in aerodynamic design, cooling, anti-corrosion coatings and thermal barriers. Siemens points to its past record where the non-cooled blades of 1975 output 0.7MW per blade in a gas temperature of 900?C. Today, film-cooled blades output 2MW per blade in a gas temperature of 1400?.

Future developments will rely on greater use of nickel-based super alloys, single-crystal base materials, new designs for internal and film-cooled hot gas parts, high-temperature corrosion protection and new thermal barrier coatings for better cooling, perhaps based on ceramics.

There will also be improved monitoring of gas turbines in operation, leading to smaller clearance gaps to boost efficiency, high speed infra-red cameras to record images of red-hot turbine blades and wireless sensors for blade monitoring.

In power usage, it sees more energy-saving electric motors, super-conducting generators, building automation for greater efficiency, light emitting diodes (LEDs) replacing filament bulbs, improved neural networks and fuzzy logic for energy saving controls. And to meet consumers' expectations, it sees continuing trends of improvement in security of supply, fuel flexibility, network management and reduction of pollutants.

The future now

With the recent unveiling of the company’s latest offerings, the future is here now with the development of the world's largest and most efficient gas turbines, the SGT5-8000H, with an output of 340MW; and the combined cycle SCC5-8000H with an output of 530MW. Siemens says this will make a major contribution to the responsible utilisation of increasingly scarce resources. The turbine’s technology increases the efficiency of combined gas and steam generation from 58 to 60 per cent.

And Siemens Power Generation has just launched a gas turbine-based system to help destroy volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The innovative technology, called SGT-300 VOC, is based on a gas turbine, which ingests and destroys volatile organic compounds while simultaneously generating electricity and thermal energy for the facility in which it is installed.

VOC emissions are collected at a common point for injection into the gas turbine inlet air stream. This contaminated air stream is fed into the gas turbine air intake and is combusted in the standard dry low-emissions combustion system of the SGT-300 VOC. The mixing, combustion temperature and residence time is sufficient to ensure burnout of the VOCs to meet the USA’s Environmental Protection Agency standards.

A heat-recovery steam generator can be used to capture the thermal energy and raise steam for use in the client's process or it can be used in a steam turbine to generate additional electricity.
VOCs are chemical substances that evaporate easily. They are emitted by a vast number of industries, mainly in the form of contaminated air that is exhausted from processes such as wood drying or paint spraying.

While operating at full load, destruction efficiency exceeded 95 per cent for all tested VOCs and mixtures and exceeded 98 percent for several specific VOCs.

So, while Siemens portfolio of companies may seem diverse, with its water, health and transport interests, there is a common theme of improvement of quality of life running through the company. But none of these sectors could flourish without a supply of electricity and that means a secure future for power generation.